NAPLES/FT MYERS HOUSING 1Q16: Strong Starts Pace Continues with 19 Quarters of Consecutive Growth
- Annual New Home Starts up 1.7% QoQ, marking 19 consecutive quarters of growth
- Ave Maria in Collier County remains the top single-family community by annual starts; Marbella Isles in Collier is a close second and Toll Brothers’ Bonita Lakes in Lee County stands at third.
- Collier County’s start rate has risen for 28 consecutive quarters, and in 1Q16 annual has now exceeded Lee’s for the first time since 4Q02.
MAY 2016 – Metrostudy’s survey of the housing market in the Naples/Ft. Myers region shows that 1Q16 starts decreased 11.5% to 1,152 from 4Q15, but was up 7.8% compared to 1Q15. The annual starts pace increased 1.7% over the previous quarter to 4,869, and is up 14% YoY. The annual starts pace has increased for 19 consecutive quarters in Naples/Ft. Myers. Closings in 1Q16 were up 6.3% from the previous quarter, and were up 17% from 1Q15. The annual closing rate was up 18% from a year ago, and the 4.6% QoQ improvement extends this upward trend to 15 consecutive quarters.
TOP SINGLE FAMILY COMMUNITIES BY ANNUAL STARTS:
Listed below are the top 10 single-family communities in the Naples/Ft/ Myers market, ranked by annual starts through 1Q16:
Ave Maria remains at the top spot once again and was the starts leader for all of 2015. Marbella Isles maintains its hold on second place, while Till Brothers’ Bonita Lakes stays at third. Minto’s Isle of Collier Preserve and Fiddler’s Creek complete the tip five. Lindford makes its first appearance at sixth, while Winding Cypress, Plantation, Riverstone, and Corkscrew Shoes hold on to their Top 10 positions.
Lee County is comprised of the Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres are included in our research, but scattered lot activity is not. Quarterly starts were down 18% while quarterly closings jumped 35% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate was up 5% and the annual closings rate is up 9% from the first quarter if 2015. Housing inventory remains below equilibrium in Lee County at 6.9 months of supply. Nine months of supply is considered normal. The supply of VDL inventory declined 2% QQ to 6,769, a 34-months’ supply. There were 442 lot deliveries in the quarter, down 35% from the previous quarter and off 28% YoY. Future lot inventory is up 19% YoY to 37,247.
Collier County is comprised of the Naples-Marco Island MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Collier County are included in this research but the scattered lot activity, primarily in Golden Gate and Golden Gate Estates, is not. Quarterly starts declined by 4.3%, while quarterly closings dropped 16% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate is up 23%, and annual closings are up 31% from 1Q15’ s annual pace. The annual starts rate has risen for 28 consecutive quarters, and Collier’s annual starts pace has now exceeded Lee’s for the first time since 4Q02. Housing Inventory was slightly elevated at 11.4 months of supply. Labor constraints and the above average size of these homes are partially responsible for the higher-than-normal inventory level. VDL inventory decreased 3% QoQ to 4,922, a 24 month supply. Lot deliveries decreased to 416, down 55% from the previous quarter’s strong showing. Future lot deliveries remained virtually unchanged at 29,757.
Lee County’s F/V rate decreased to 1.5 months of supply (MOS) while Collier County’s F/V decreased to 2.5 MOS. The previous quarter’s F/V MOS was 2.0 for Lee and 3.0 for Collier. The finished-vacant months-of-supply metric is the number of finished-vacant homes divided by the number of move-ins over the last four quarters, then multiplied by twelve. Metrostudy has observed over the years that when this number rises above 3.0 and stays there, builders tend to reduce prices or make concessions, so this indicator is closely observed each quarter for emerging trends.
For information contact
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and residential construction industry. Metrostudy’s actionable business intelligence informs investment decisions that mitigate risk and grow revenue for builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers and manufacturers. It’s the construction industry’s only integrated data intelligence solution supported by the most extensive U.S. geographic coverage. Learn more at Metrostudy.com
About Hanley Wood
Hanley Wood is the premier company serving the information, media, and marketing needs of the residential, commercial design and construction industry. Utilizing the largest analytics and editorially driven Construction Industry Database, the company provides business intelligence and data-driven services. The company produces award-winning media, high-profile executive events, and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.