NAPLES / FT MYERS HOUSING 3Q17: Hurricane Impact in this Market Looks to be Limited; New Home Starts Continue Steady Growth
- 3Q17 Quarterly New Home Starts are up 2.1% from 3Q16, but down 4% from 2Q17.
- 3Q17 Closings decreased 19% from 2Q17, and decreased 6.5% YoY. The annual closing pace increased 7.5% from a year ago, but fell 1.5% from the previous quarter.
- Non-agricultural, non-seasonally adjusted job growth in Naples/Ft. Myers skidded to a halt in September due to the effects of Hurricane Irma; Metrostudy believes this is a temporary employment trend caused by the storm.
Metrostudy’s 3Q17 survey of the Naples / Ft. Myers new home market shows that the quarterly starts rate decreased 4% to 1,204 from 2Q17, but increased 2.1% when compared to the third quarter of 2016. The annual starts pace increased 0.5% over the previous quarter to 4,725, but decreased 0.5% from the third quarter of 2016. Our third quarter survey observed finished vacant inventory at less than three months supply in all Southwest Florida submarkets, with all but the Collier northwest submarket under 2 months supply of finished, vacant (F/V) homes.
Third quarter 2017 closings decreased 19% from the previous quarter, and decreased 6.5% from the third quarter of 2016. The annual closing pace increased 7.5% from a year ago, but fell 1.5% from the previous quarter.
“Non-agricultural, non-seasonally adjusted job growth in Naples/Ft. Myers skidded to a halt in September due to the effects of Hurricane Irma,” said David Cobb, Metrostudy’s Regional Director in South Florida. “The hurricane hit during the establishment (jobs) survey period for employment in September, and those who were unable to work were not counted as employed if they were not paid during that survey period. Metrostudy believes this is a temporary employment trend caused by the storm. Despite the storm’s effects, both the Cape Coral – Ft. Myers MSA and the Naples – Marco Island – Immokalee MSA saw the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fall from the same month of last year”
Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory decreased 3% from the previous quarter, to 10,831 lots. Lot deliveries for the quarter increased 57% to 820 when compared to the previous quarter.
- Lee County: Lee County is comprised of the Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres are included in our research, but scattered lot activity is not. Quarterly starts increased 3.5%, while quarterly closings decreased 5.3% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate increased 5.5% and the annual closings rate increased 12.3% from the third quarter of 2016. Housing Inventory remains below equilibrium in Lee County at 6.3 MOS. Nine months of supply is considered normal. The supply of VDL inventory decreased 6% quarter -over-quarter to 6,305, a 29 months supply. There were 257 lot deliveries in the quarter, up 13% from the previous quarter, but down 69% year over year. Future lot inventory increased 7% year over year to 39,347.
- Collier County: Collier County is comprised of the Naples – Marco Island – Immokalee MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Collier County are included in this research, but the scattered lot activity, primarily in Golden Gate and Golden Gate Estates, is not. Quarterly starts decreased by 12%, and quarterly closings decreased by 32% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate decreased 7%, while the annual closings rate increased 2.6% from the third quarter of 2016. Housing Inventory increased quarter-over-quarter to 8.3 MOS from 7.5 MOS. VDL inventory increased 0.3% quarter-over-quarter to 4,526, a 25 months supply. Lot deliveries increased 91% to 563 from the previous quarter, and are up 22% year over year. Future lot inventory increased 6% year over year, to 30,254.
The Top 10 single family communities in the Naples/Ft. Myers market, ranked by the past 12 months starts through the third quarter of 2017: Ave Maria remains at the top spot once again and has been the starts leader for eleven consecutive quarters
Rank Community Location Starts Move-Ins Builder
- Ave Maria Collier 308 380 Multi
- Lindsford Lee 227 220 DR Horton
- Pelican Preserve Lee 166 139 Lennar
- Naples Reserve Collier 162 63 multi builder
- River Hall Lee 157 126 multi builder
- Fiddler’s Creek Collier 146 145 multi builder
- Corkscrew Shores Lee 141 151 Pulte
- Artesia Collier 139 109 Lennar
- StoneCreek Collier 136 107 GL Homes
- Winding Cypress Collier 135 137 Pulte
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