NAPLES / FT MYERS HOUSING 3Q17: Hurricane Impact in this Market Looks to be Limited; New Home Starts Continue Steady Growth

  • 3Q17 Quarterly New Home Starts are up 2.1% from 3Q16, but down 4% from 2Q17.
  • 3Q17 Closings decreased 19% from 2Q17, and decreased 6.5% YoY. The annual closing pace increased 7.5% from a year ago, but fell 1.5% from the previous quarter.
  • Non-agricultural, non-seasonally adjusted job growth in Naples/Ft. Myers skidded to a halt in September due to the effects of Hurricane Irma; Metrostudy believes this is a temporary employment trend caused by the storm.

Metrostudy’s 3Q17 survey of the Naples / Ft. Myers new home market shows that the quarterly starts rate decreased 4% to 1,204 from 2Q17, but increased 2.1% when compared to the third quarter of 2016. The annual starts pace increased 0.5% over the previous quarter to 4,725, but decreased 0.5% from the third quarter of 2016. Our third quarter survey observed finished vacant inventory at less than three months supply in all Southwest Florida submarkets, with all but the Collier northwest submarket under 2 months supply of finished, vacant (F/V) homes.

Third quarter 2017 closings decreased 19% from the previous quarter, and decreased 6.5% from the third quarter of 2016. The annual closing pace increased 7.5% from a year ago, but fell 1.5% from the previous quarter.

“Non-agricultural, non-seasonally adjusted job growth in Naples/Ft. Myers skidded to a halt in September due to the effects of Hurricane Irma,” said David Cobb, Metrostudy’s Regional Director in South Florida. “The hurricane hit during the establishment (jobs) survey period for employment in September, and those who were unable to work were not counted as employed if they were not paid during that survey period. Metrostudy believes this is a temporary employment trend caused by the storm. Despite the storm’s effects, both the Cape Coral – Ft. Myers MSA and the Naples – Marco Island – Immokalee MSA saw the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fall from the same month of last year”

Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory decreased 3% from the previous quarter, to 10,831 lots. Lot deliveries for the quarter increased 57% to 820 when compared to the previous quarter.

  • Lee County: Lee County is comprised of the Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres are included in our research, but scattered lot activity is not. Quarterly starts increased 3.5%, while quarterly closings decreased 5.3% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate increased 5.5% and the annual closings rate increased 12.3% from the third quarter of 2016. Housing Inventory remains below equilibrium in Lee County at 6.3 MOS. Nine months of supply is considered normal. The supply of VDL inventory decreased 6% quarter -over-quarter to 6,305, a 29 months supply. There were 257 lot deliveries in the quarter, up 13% from the previous quarter, but down 69% year over year. Future lot inventory increased 7% year over year to 39,347.
  • Collier County: Collier County is comprised of the Naples – Marco Island – Immokalee MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Collier County are included in this research, but the scattered lot activity, primarily in Golden Gate and Golden Gate Estates, is not. Quarterly starts decreased by 12%, and quarterly closings decreased  by  32%  from  the  previous quarter. The annual starts rate decreased 7%, while the annual closings rate increased 2.6% from the third quarter of 2016. Housing Inventory increased quarter-over-quarter to 8.3 MOS from 7.5 MOS. VDL inventory increased 0.3% quarter-over-quarter to 4,526, a 25 months supply. Lot deliveries increased 91% to 563 from the previous quarter, and are up 22% year over year. Future lot inventory increased 6% year over year, to 30,254.

The Top 10 single family communities in the Naples/Ft. Myers market, ranked by the past 12 months starts through the third quarter of 2017: Ave Maria remains at the top spot once again and has been the starts leader for eleven consecutive quarters

Rank    Community     Location  Starts  Move-Ins    Builder

  1.        Ave Maria            Collier         308      380      Multi
  2.        Lindsford                     Lee      227      220      DR Horton
  3.        Pelican Preserve          Lee      166      139      Lennar
  4.        Naples Reserve         Collier    162      63        multi builder
  5.        River Hall                      Lee      157      126      multi builder
  6.        Fiddler’s Creek          Collier    146      145      multi builder
  7.        Corkscrew Shores        Lee      141      151      Pulte
  8.        Artesia                         Collier  139      109      Lennar
  9.        StoneCreek                  Collier  136      107      GL Homes
  10.        Winding Cypress        Collier  135      137      Pulte

For information contact
David Cobb
Tel: 239-220-7023
dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy: Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and residential construction industry. Metrostudy’s actionable business intelligence informs investment decisions that mitigate risk and grow revenue for builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers and manufacturers. It’s the construction industry’s only integrated data intelligence solution supported by the most extensive U.S. geographic coverage. Learn more at Metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood: Hanley Wood is the premier company serving the information, media, and marketing needs of the residential, commercial design and construction industry. Utilizing the largest analytics and editorially driven Construction Industry Database, the company provides business intelligence and data-driven services. The company produces award-winning media, high-profile executive events, and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

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