NAPLES / FT MYERS HOUSING 4Q16: New Home Closings Deliver 19th Consecutive Quarter of Growth
- 4Q16 Quarterly New Homes Starts Down 10% YoY & 8% QoQ; Annual New Home Starts Down 1.9% YoY & 2.5% QoQ.
- 4Q16 Quarterly Closings Up 14% YoY & 5% QoQ; Annual Closings Up 21% YoY & 3% QoQ, delivering gains for 19 consecutive quarters.
- Lee County closings experienced strong annual and quarterly growth, but Collier County saw its annual closings rate decline QoQ for the first time since 2Q15.
Metrostudy’s 4Q16 survey of the housing market in the Naples/Ft. Myers region shows there were 1,071 quarterly starts, a decrease of 8% from 3Q16 and down 10% from 4Q15. The annual starts pace decreased 2.5% from the previous quarter to 4,603, and is down 1.9% YoY. Closings in 4Q16 totaled 1,244, up 5% from the previous quarter, and up 14% from 4Q15. The annual closing rate of 4,772 was up 3% from 3Q16 and 21% higher than one year ago.
“In spite of the decline in starts, Naples/Ft. Myers has now seen quarterly closings rise for 19 consecutive quarters,” said David Cobb, Metrostudy’s Regional Director in South Florida. “Our fourth quarter survey observed excess finished vacant inventory in certain submarkets, especially in Collier County. The South Collier submarket housing inventory survey observed that 50% of all housing inventory was classified as finished vacant. Lee’s F/V rate decreased to 1.5 months of supply while Collier’s F/V increased slightly to 2.7 MOS. The previous quarter’s F/V MOS was 1.6 for Lee and 2.6 for Collier.”
Vacant, developed lot inventory increased 0.9% from the previous quarter, to 11,636 lots. Lot deliveries for the quarter decreased 0.3% to 1,170 when compared to the previous quarter.
Lee County – Lee County is comprised of the Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres are included in our research, but scattered lot activity is not. Quarterly starts were down 3.1% while quarterly closings were up 13% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate is up 4% and the annual closings rate is up 22% from the fourth quarter of 2015. Housing Inventory remains below equilibrium in Lee County at 6.1 MOS. Nine months of supply is considered normal. The supply of VDL inventory increased 4.6% quarter-over-quarter to 6,973, a 34 months’ supply. There were 935 lot deliveries in the quarter, up 31% from the previous quarter and up 15% YoY. Future lot inventory is up 5% YoY to 38,493.
Collier County – Collier County is comprised of the Naples-Marco Island MSA. Active master-planned subdivisions in Collier County are included in this research but the scattered lot activity, primarily in Golden Gate and Golden Gate Estates, is not. Quarterly starts decreased by 15% and quarterly closings decreased by 4% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate declined 7% from the previous quarter and is down 8% YoY. The annual closings rate is up 19% from 4Q15’s pace; however, the annual closings rate declined this quarter over the previous quarter for the first time since 2Q15. Housing Inventory is near normal at 9.6 MOS. VDL inventory decreased 4% quarter-over-quarter to 4,663, a 26 months’ supply. Lot deliveries declined 49% over the previous quarter, to 235, the lowest quarterly figure since 3Q13. Future lot inventory decreased 0.3% from the previous quarter to 28,655.
TOP SINGLE FAMILY COMMUNITIES BY ANNUAL STARTS: Listed below are the top 10 single-family communities in the Naples/Ft. Myers market, ranked by annual starts through 4Q16:
Rank Community Location Starts Move-Ins Builder
1 Ave Maria Collier 345 295 Multi
2 Marina Bay Lee 185 208 GL Homes
3 Marbella Isles Collier 170 246 GL Homes
4 Lindsford Lee 157 189 DR Horton
5 Plantation Lee 155 179 Pulte
6 Corkscrew Shores Lee 132 149 Pulte
7 Stone Creek Collier 123 37 GL Homes
8 Esplanade G & CC Collier 121 102 Taylor Morrison
9 Isles of Collier Preserve Collier 118 137 Minto
10 Pelican Preserve Lee 115 136 WCI
Ave Maria remains at the top spot once again and has been the starts leader for eight consecutive quarters. GL Homes’ Marina Bay makes the list for the first time to take second place. Marbella Isles slides one spot to third, while Lindsford and Plantation hold on to fourth and fifth place, respectively. Corkscrew Shores, Stone Creek, Esplanade, Isles of Collier, and Pelican Preserve all maintain their status as a Top 10 Community.
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