SOUTH FLORIDA HOUSING 4Q17: Irma Trips the Market Up in the 4th Quarter; Still, Growth Continues Year over Year

  • Quarterly New Home Starts are down 24% from 3Q17, no doubt influenced in part by Hurricane Irma. Despite this, Annual Starts in 2017 increased by 1% over 2016.
  • The Annual Closings Pace in 2017 increased 13% from 2016 levels.
  • In the Top 10 List of Single Family Communities in the South Florida market, Tradition claims the top spot this quarter now that Bonterra is built out. Lennar Homes dominates the top 10 with six of the ten projects. Raintree and Millstone Landing are new arrivals on the top 10 list this quarter.

Metrostudy’s 4Q17 survey of the South Florida housing market – including all new housing activity in Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties – shows new home starts decreased 24% from 3Q17 to 1,698, no doubt influenced by in part by Hurricane Irma.  The annual starts pace increased 1% to 8,098 from the annual starts rate observed in 4Q16. Quarterly closings decreased 3.5% from the previous quarter, but increased 8% from 4Q16. The annual closings pace of 8,091 increased 2% from the previous quarter and increased 13% from 4Q16.

Finished, vacant inventory increased 6.2% from last quarter to 1,517 units, and this figure is 2.5% higher than the fourth quarter of 2016. Finished, vacant, inventory has hovered in the 2 months-of-supply (MOS) range for the previous twenty consecutive quarters and is holding steady at 2.2 MOS.

Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory increased 2% from the previous quarter to 17,790, a 26 months’ supply. VDLs increased 0.3% from the fourth quarter of 2016. Lot deliveries increased 19% this quarter to 1,999, and are up 122% year over year (y-o-y). Total lots delivered in 2017 are 8,154, slightly more than the annual starts pace. Future lot supply decreased 1% this quarter, to 152,838.

December 2017 marks Florida’s 89th consecutive month of positive year-over-year job growth. Florida’s seasonally adjusted annual job growth rate as of December 2017 was 213,500, a 2.5% increase. Nationally, the number of jobs increased by 1.4% during the same period. The seasonally adjusted state unemployment rate in December was 3.7%, up 0.1% from the previous month, but down 1.2% from a year ago. There were 374,000 unemployed Floridians out of a labor force of 10,127,000 in December.

County-by-County Stats:

  • Miami-Dade County: Quarterly starts decreased 16% from the previous quarter to 634, but increased 0.5% from 4Q16. Quarterly closings decreased 9% from the previous quarter, but increased 9% year over year. The annual starts pace of 2,892 increased 0.1% from 4Q16 while the annual closing pace increased 16% from a year ago.
  • Broward County: Quarterly housing starts in Broward County decreased 42% from the previous quarter, and are down 26% from 4Q16. Quarterly closings decreased by 30% from the previous quarter, but are up 1.4% from 4Q16. The annual starts pace increased 12% y-o-y to 1,551 units, and annual closings were up 25% y-o-y.
  • Palm Beach County: Quarterly housing starts in Palm Beach County decreased 14% from the previous quarter, and are flat from 4Q16. Quarterly closings are up 17% from the previous quarter, and are up 6% y-o-y. The annual starts pace decreased 2% and annual closings decreased 2% y-o-y.
  • Treasure Coast: The Treasure Coast includes Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Quarterly starts decreased 30% while quarterly closings increased 13% from the previous quarter.

The chart below shows the Top 10 single family communities in the South Florida market, ranked by the past 12 months’ starts through the fourth quarter of 2017:

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 11.04.14 AM

Tradition claims the top spot this quarter now that Bonterra is built out. Lennar Homes dominates the top 10 with six of the ten projects. Raintree and Millstone Landing are new arrivals on the top 10 list this quarter.

For information contact

David Cobb
561.228.8001 x505
dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy: Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and residential construction industry. Metrostudy’s actionable business intelligence informs investment decisions that mitigate risk and grow revenue for builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers and manufacturers. It’s the construction industry’s only integrated data intelligence solution supported by the most extensive U.S. geographic coverage. Learn more at Metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood: Hanley Wood is the premier company serving the information, media, and marketing needs of the residential, commercial design and construction industry. Utilizing the largest analytics and editorially driven Construction Industry Database, the company provides business intelligence and data-driven services. The company produces award-winning media, high-profile executive events, and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

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