TAMPA HOUSING 1Q17: Another Solid Quarter – Rising Prices May Be the Only Block in the Road

  • Quarterly New Home Starts were up 9.8% over 1Q16 levels; Annual New Home Starts are also up 9.8% YoY
  • The Quarterly Closing Rate was up 45.3% YoY – the best quarterly move-in rate we have seen since the recession
  • The median home price in March 2017 was up by 14.5% to $214,200. The median sale price for traditional resales was $220,000 in March, up 9.9%. Short Sales and Bank Sales continue to skew the overall median price downward.

Metrostudy’s 1Q17 survey of the Tampa housing market shows that 2,318 single-family units were started in the quarter, an increase of 9.8% compared to last year’s rate. The annual starts rate, compared to last year, increased by 9.8%, to 9,018 annual starts.  Single-family quarterly closings totaled 2,482 units, which was 45.3% higher than 1Q16. The annual closings rate was 8,879 units, 24.4% above the annual closings rate of 7,138 units for the twelve months ended 1Q16.

“Job creation, migration, growing workforce, a steady unemployment rate, record level employment and low interest rates all fueled another solid quarter for housing in Tampa,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’ Tampa marekt. “The quarterly starts pace of 2,318 units was the second best quarter for starts since 1Q07, behind only 3Q 2016. Tampa is now building about 90% of the twenty year moving average. The quarterly closing rate of 2,482 units was the best post-recession quarter for move-ins in Tampa. Metrostudy is still anticipating that there will continue to be growth in starts and closings in Tampa over the next few years. This does not mean 2003–2006 levels, but demand should continue to grow towards or above our long term average. The biggest road block for new housing will be the cost of housing versus wage growth, especially with another two interest rate increases anticipated in 2017.”

For the twelve months ending March 2017, annual new home starts in price ranges under $250k totaled 4,346 units, up 9.8% from the numbers in 1Q16. New home starts in prices over $250k grew by 9.9% from 1Q16 to 4,672 units as of 1Q17. The marginal 806 unit increase in the annual start pace was split: 386 more units under $250k and 420 more units above $250k. The table below indicates the current distribution of annual starts by price range:

Tampa Housing by Price

This quarter, 2,887 lots were delivered to the Tampa market. This same quarter a year ago, we delivered 1,977 lots. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 33,142 lots, an increase of 2.8% compared to 32,247 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 44.1 month supply, down 3.0 months from last year.

March MLS SF sales were up 9.6% from the same period of 2016 with 4,537 sales, as supply is low at 2.8 months. The median home price in March 2017 was up by 16.7% to $214,200. However the resale market is three tiered: traditional, short sales and foreclosures. The median sale price for traditional resales was $220,000 in March, up 9.9%. Short Sales and Bank Sales continue to skew the overall median price downward.

The other significant trend involves new housing inventory. Closings grew in 1Q17 versus 4Q16, as such, overall inventory declined in 1Q17 versus 4Q16. The UC inventory fell by 169 units versus 4Q16 but was up by 329 units versus 1Q16. The opposite was true with Finished Vacant units. They were up by 16 units versus 4Q16 but down by 180 units versus 1Q16. Overall inventory levels fell from 7.1 months as of 4Q16 to 6.3 months as of 1Q17. The Months of Supply of FV units were below 2.0 months for the second consecutive quarter at 1.6, down from 1.7 in 4Q. Metrostudy considers 2.0 as the high end of equilibrium for FV units. Other than a low lot supply in Hillsborough County, most key supply and demand indicators were positive for 1Q17 and support continued growth for all of 2017.

The table below ranks the top ten communities in the market by annual starts.

Community (Area)                                      Ann Starts

Wiregrass …………………………………………….. 339

FishHawk Ranch ……………………………………. 295

Waterset ……………………………………………… 292

Starkey Ranch ………………………………………. 245

Long Lake Ranch …………………………………… 211

Oak Creek (SEH) …………………………………… 199

Valencia Lakes ………………………………………. 179

Belmont ………………………………………………. 138

Ayersworth Glen ……………………………………. 134

Lakeside………………………………………………. 130

For information contact:

Tony Polito
813.888.5151
tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy: Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood: Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; high-profile executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Share On Facebook
Share On Twitter
Share On Linkedin