BOISE-TREASURE VALLEY HOUSING 1Q19: Lot Deliveries Increase as Production Moves to Attached Housing

  • Quarterly new home starts are up 3% YoY; annual starts are up 7% from 1Q18 levels.
  • Quarterly closings are down 14% from 1Q18 numbers; annual closings are up 8% YoY
  • Annual starts for attached (for sale) homes increased 52% compared to 1Q18; starts for detached homes are up 5% YoY
  • Due to the increased attention of those outside of Boise, there has been an influx of home buyers come into the market over the past few years. As such, home prices continue to increase.

According to Metrostudy’s most recent quarterly lot by lot survey of every subdivision in the Boise/Treasure Valley market, new home starts during the first quarter of 2019 saw a 3% increase from 1Q18, and a 10% increase from last quarter to 1,425. New home closings during the first quarter totaled 1,044, which is a 14% decrease compared to 1Q18, and down 16% from last quarter. Annual new home starts within the Boise market totaled 5,853 as of March, which is a 7% increase compared to the annual pace in 1Q18. Annual new home closings have increased 8% compared to this time last year to 5,352, however the pace did decrease 3% from last quarter.

“With the recent decrease in closings, it will be imperative to monitor inventory levels over the next few months as we anticipate that levels could increase,” said Eric Allen, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Utah / Idaho market. “However, the decrease occurred primarily in homes priced under $250,000, which are down a total of 14% from last quarter. Currently only 22% of all new home closings are below $250,000, most of which are located in Canyon County.”

Annual starts for detached homes totaled 5,548 as of 1Q19, a 5% increase compared to this time last year, and new home closings increased 9% to 5,186. Annual starts for attached (for sale) homes increased 52% compared to 1Q18 to 305, while closings decreased 20% to 166. Ada County started 969 new homes during the first quarter, which is down 3% from 1Q18 and basically from last quarter. Closings during the quarter dropped 13% from 1Q18 to 782. Annual starts as of March totaled 4,236 for the county, which is 7% higher than last year at this time. Annual closings increased 6% from last year to 3,857. New home starts in Canyon County totaled 456 in the first quarter, up 16% compared to 1Q18, however closings decreased 16% to 261. Annual starts in the county totaled 1,598, which is a 7% increase over last year and closings increased 11% to 1,475.

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Due to the increased attention of those outside of Boise, there has been an influx of home buyers come into the market over the past few years. As such, home prices continue to increase. The median price for a new home in Ada County is now $369,100, which is 9% higher compared to this same time last year. The median price for a new home in Canyon County has increased 11% over the past year to $247,700.

Annual lot deliveries continue to increase in the market, up 51% compared to 1Q16 for a total of 6,669. Despite the increase in new lots, the supply of vacant developed lots is below equilibrium at 14.1 months. Ada County currently has 5,000 vacant lots on the ground which is a 23% increase compared to 1Q18 and currently sits at a 14.2 month supply. Canyon County lot inventory has decreased 5% since 1Q18 to 1,794, and is a low 135 month supply, down from 15.2 months recorded in 1Q18.

As expected, the Boise/Treasure Valley market is becoming slightly more volatile compared to the last couple years. However, Metrostudy expects demand to remain strong through 2019. With interest rates projected to remain flat for the remainder of the year, this may take some urgency out of buying, therefore monitoring inventory levels will become a much higher priority than previous months.

For information contact:
Eric Allen – eallen@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy: Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

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