Metrostudy/Zonda Release Q3 2019 New Pool Index (NPI) — Consumer Strength Continues to Support Pool Activity, But Forecast Calls for Flat Growth

WASHINGTON, D.C. (December 3, 2019) — Metrostudy/Zonda, the largest home building data platform, announced today the release of its third quarter 2019 New Pool Index (NPI), detailing activity in the new in-ground pool installation industry.

In the third quarter of 2019 the New Pool Index increased to 52.7, marking an increase of 1.0 percent from second quarter, and a gain of 6.0 percent from one year earlier. The index has now seen thirty-seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year gains since new pool activity hit bottom in 2009; however, annual rates of growth are now moderating compared to the 8 percent increases averaged over the last few years. Metrostudy/Zonda forecast this cooling to continue, with the NPI expected to average year-over-year gains of only 1.0 percent in 2020, followed by 1.5 percent in 2021.

“As the trade war with China is hampering business investment and manufacturing, it appears the consumer has stepped in to keep supporting gains in the labor market. Steady annual gains in wages and a stable stock market also bodes well for continued consumer strength and spending in the pool industry,” said Mark Boud, Chief Economist at Metrostudy/Zonda. “However, job growth is still weaker compared to last year and is projected to continue waning over the next few years as the economic cycle loses steam, even if the trade conflict is straightened out. This, combined with slower activity in the housing market, lends to an outlook of relatively flat growth in new pool installations over the short term,” says Boud.

Metrostudy/Zonda produce the NPI to provide the industry visibility into local market pool activity, forecasted future activity, and potential demand.  According to the company’s third quarter report, 287 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are expected to see year-over-year growth in new pool projects in 2019, with these markets averaging 4.9 percent growth.

For more information on accessing the full quarterly report, please email Robb Coltrin at rcoltrin@metrostudy.com.

About the New Pool Index

The NPI is a quarterly measure of the level of pool installation activity in 381 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in the U.S., with the national composite reflecting the national level of activity. On the national level, a number above 100 indicates a level of pool activity higher than the level of activity in 2005, which was the peak of pool installs in the prior decade. Each MSA’s activity index is computed independently based on that market’s pool related data and shows the current level of activity in the specific MSA relative to the MSA’s own history and relative to year 2005.

The index is produced through a statistical model that leverages detailed data on pool installation activity, including household level pool permits, existing pool locations, and survey of planned pool purchases.  Quarterly historical results for the national composite and for each of the 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. are available back to 2004. In addition, Metrostudy/Zonda also produce annual estimates of pool project counts as well as forecasts of the quarterly index and annual project counts.

 

About Hanley Wood (Metrostudy/Zonda)

Hanley Wood, represents the housing industry’s leading provider of rich data, backed by Zonda and Metrostudy, and the industry’s top advisors for residential real estate development and new home construction. With products and services geared for homebuilders, multifamily developers, lenders, and financial institutions, we provide innovative solutions to maximize opportunities in today’s real estate development landscape.