Metrostudy Releases Q3 2018 New Pool Index (NPI) — Economy Keeps Pool Industry Busy in 2018, Some Moderation on the Horizon
WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 27, 2018) — Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, announced today the release of its third quarter 2018 New Pool Index (NPI), detailing activity in the new in-ground pool installation industry.
The New Pool Index increased a solid 8.4 percent year-over-year to a reading of 49.7 in the third quarter of 2018. Third quarter’s index also represented a two percent increase from the previous quarter. Third quarter was consistent with the strong performance observed during the first half of the year. The index has seen thirty-four consecutive quarters of year-over-year gains since activity hit a bottom in 2009.
While the NPI is forecast to close 2018 on a strong note with an annual gain of 7.5 percent, annual growth is expected to cool to an average of 3.6 percent in 2019 and 0.6 percent 2020, before strengthening again in 2021. Future moderation will be due to a plateau in the employment cycle and decreasing home sales as mortgage rates rise.
“Continued job gains and the emergence of wage growth that has not been seen since 2009 has new pool builders and the repair and maintenance segment booked-up nicely,” said Mark Boud, Chief Economist at Metrostudy. “We are benefitting from the late-innings stretch of the current economic cycle and expect the New Pool Index to continue growing. However, over the forecast, growth rates are likely to temper as employment tops out and home sales slow, since these are consumer confidence and housing-turnover variables that factor into pool activity. The industry will also need to keep an eye on rising construction costs. Despite these challenges, we expect continued year-over-year gains in new pool activity during the medium-term.”
Metrostudy produces the NPI to provide the industry visibility into local market pool activity, forecasted future activity, and potential demand. According to the company’s third quarter report, 333 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are expected to see year-over-year growth in new pool projects in 2018, with these markets averaging 9.2 percent growth. For 2019, 304 MSA’s are expected to see annual project gains, with these markets averaging 7.5 percent.
For more information on accessing the full quarterly report, please email Katie Welch at email@example.com.
About the New Pool Index
The NPI is a quarterly measure of the level of pool installation activity in 381 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in the U.S., with the national composite reflecting the national level of activity. On the national level, a number above 100 indicates a level of pool activity higher than the level of activity in 2005, which was the peak of pool installs in the prior decade. Each MSA’s activity index is computed independently based on that market’s pool related data and shows the current level of activity in the specific MSA relative to the MSA’s own history and relative to year 2005.
The index is produced through a statistical model that leverages detailed data on pool installation activity, including household level pool permits, existing pool locations, and survey of planned pool purchases. Quarterly historical results for the national composite and for each of the 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. are available back to 2004. In addition, Metrostudy also produces annual estimates of pool project counts as well as forecasts of the quarterly index and annual project counts.
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and residential construction industry. Metrostudy’s actionable business intelligence informs investment decisions that mitigate risk and grow revenue for builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers and manufacturers. It’s the construction industry’s only integrated data intelligence solution supported by the most extensive U.S. geographic coverage. Learn more at Metrostudy.com.
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