SOUTH FLORIDA HOUSING 1Q17: Despite a Few Bumps, Growth Remains Strong
- For the region, 1Q17 Quarterly New Home Starts are down 2.9% YoY while Annual Starts are up 2.8% YoY
- In Miami-Dade County , the Annual Starts pace is up 9.6% YoY – while in Broward County annual starts are up 15% YoY
- Lot deliveries increased 123% this quarter to 1,917, and are up 271% year over year. Future lot supply increased 0.8% this quarter, to 150,717.
Metrostudy’s 1Q17 survey of the South Florida housing market shows that first quarter starts increased 4.5% from the previous quarter to 1,954, but decreased 2.9% from 1Q16. The annual starts pace increased 2.8% to 7,888 from the annual starts rate observed in the first quarter of 2016. Quarterly closings increased 9.2% from the previous quarter, and increased 28.6% from 1Q16. The annual closings pace of 7,550 increased 6.2% from the previous quarter and increased 8.6% from 1Q16.
Finished, vacant inventory decreased 8.1% from last quarter to 1,360 units, but this figure is 3.3% higher than the first quarter of 2016. Finished, vacant (F/V) inventory has hovered in the 2 months-of-supply (MOS) range for the previous seventeen consecutive quarters and stands at 2.2 MOS. The finished-vacant MOS metric is the number of finished-vacant homes divided by the number of move-ins over the last four quarters, then multiplied by twelve. Metrostudy has observed over the years that when this number rises above about 3.0 and stays there, builders tend to reduce prices or make concessions, so Metrostudy monitors this metric closely.
Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory decreased 0.2% from the previous quarter to 17,461, a 27 months’ supply. VDLs decreased 5.5% from 1Q16. VDL MOS is calculated by dividing the number of developed lots by the current annual starts pace, and then multiplying by twelve. Lot deliveries increased 123% this quarter to 1,917, and are up 271% year over year. Future lot supply increased 0.8% this quarter, to 150,717.
County By County Stats:
- Miami-Dade County: Quarterly starts increased 1% from the previous quarter to 705, but decreased 8.3% y-o-y. The annual starts pace of 2,771 decreased 2.3% over the previous quarter, but increased 9.6% yo-y. Quarterly closings increased 11.6% from the previous quarter and increased 49% y-o-y. The annual closing pace increased 12.8% from a year ago. Finished, vacant inventory has declined to 1.7 MOS from 2.9 MOS last quarter.
- Broward County: Quarterly housing starts in Broward County increased 15.4% from the previous quarter, and are up 52% y-o-y. The annual starts pace increased 15% y-o-y to 1,535, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. Quarterly closings increased 28.6% q-o-q and 50% y-o-y. F/V inventory is 3.1 MOS.
- Palm Beach: Quarterly housing starts in Palm Beach County increased 4.7% from the previous quarter, but decreased 21% y-o-y. The annual starts pace decreased 19% y-o-y. Finished, vacant inventory remains stable at 1.9 months of supply.
- Treasure Coast: The Treasure Coast includes Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Quarterly starts decreased 0.3% while quarterly closings increased 12.5% from the previous quarter.
Metrostudy’s South Florida market data cover all of the new housing activity in Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties, excluding scattered lot subdivisions such as Port St. Lucie. Included in these data are single family detached homes, townhomes, and duplexes.
Listed below are the Top 10 single family communities in South Florida, ranked by annual starts through the first quarter of 2017:
The northwest Miami-Dade community of Bonterra remains the top community by a wide margin once again this quarter, while multibuilder Tradition moves up to second place. Lennar continues with multiple projects in the top 5 with Artesa and Vineyards, while GL Homes has three Top 10 communities. Watercrest moves up to seventh, and Hemingway Point makes its introduction into the Top 10 Community list.
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