SOUTH FLORIDA HOUSING 1Q18: New Home Starts Rebound from Hurricane Irma – Growth Uneven Across Counties
- 1Q18 New Home Starts are up 11% over 4Q17 numbers; while annual starts are down 1% from 1Q17
- On the county level, both Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast saw a jump in quarterly starts (up 22% and 27% respectively YoY) while Miami-Dade and Broward saw YoY declines.
- Tradition is #1 on the list of top single family communities in the South Florida market once again, and Lennar Homes dominates with five of the top ten projects. PGA Village and Parkview at Hillcrest are new arrivals on the list this quarter.
Metrostudy’s 1Q18 survey of the South Florida new housing market – including Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties – shows that first quarter 2018 starts increased 11% from the previous quarter to 1,880, showing a rebound from the effects of Hurricane Irma. The annual starts pace decreased 1% to 7,962 from the annual starts rate observed in 1Q17. Quarterly closings decreased 9% from the previous quarter, and decreased 11% from 1Q17. The annual closings pace of 7,860 decreased 3% from the previous quarter, but increased 3% from 1Q17.
Finished, vacant inventory decreased 10% from last quarter to 1,358 units, and this figure is 0.6% lower than the first quarter of 2017. Finished, vacant, inventory has hovered in the 2 months-of-supply (MOS) range for the previous twenty-one consecutive quarters and is holding steady at 2.1 MOS.
Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory decreased 4% from the previous quarter to 17,193, a 25.9 months’ supply. VDLs decreased 2% from the first quarter of 2017. Lot deliveries decreased 39% this quarter to 1,249, and are down 30% year over year (y-o-y). Total lots delivered in the past twelve months are 7,689, less than the annual starts pace of 7,962. Future lot supply decreased 1% this quarter, to 140,683.
County by County Stats:
- Miami-Dade County: Quarterly starts decreased 7% from the previous quarter to 575, and decreased 23% from 1Q17. Quarterly closings decreased 13% from the previous quarter to 621, and decreased 20% year over year. The annual starts pace of 2,681 decreased 6% from 1Q17 and the annual closing pace decreased 1% from a year ago.
- Broward County: Quarterly housing starts in Broward County increased 5% from the previous quarter, but are down 28% from 1Q17. Quarterly closings decreased by 2% from the previous quarter, and decreased 21% from 1Q17. The annual starts pace decreased 5% y-o-y to 1,443 units, and annual closings were up 8% y-o-y at 2,818.
- Palm Beach County: Quarterly housing starts in Palm Beach County increased 28% from the previous quarter, and increased 22% from 1Q17. Quarterly closings are down 7% from the previous quarter, but are up 8% y-o-y. The annual starts pace increased 10% to 2,042 y-oy, and annual closings increased 1% y-o-y.
- Treasure Coast: The Treasure Coast includes Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Quarterly starts increased 27% while quarterly closings decreased 7% from the previous quarter.
The chart below shows the Top 10 single family communities in the South Florida market, ranked by the past 12 months’ starts through the first quarter of 2018:
Tradition claims the top spot this quarter once again. Lennar Homes dominates the top 10 with five of the top ten projects. PGA Village and Parkview at Hillcrest are new arrivals on the top 10 list this quarter.
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