SOUTH FLORIDA HOUSING 2Q18: New Home Market Continues to Rebound from Hurricane Irma; Broward & Treasure Coast Show Strongest QoQ Growth
- 2Q18 Annual New Home Starts are down 3% from 2Q17, but Quarterly Starts are up 9% QoQ, showing a rebound from effects of Hurricane Irma.
- Broward County had the biggest jump in 2Q18 new housing activity, with quarterly starts up 24% and closings up 33% from 1Q18; Miami-Dade saw declines with quarterly starts down 7% and closings down 21% from the prior quarter.
- Lennar’s Aqua Bella moves ahead of Tradition this quarter as the top single family community in the South Florida. Tradition drops to second, and Valencia Bay moves up to third.
Metrostudy’s 2Q18 survey of the South Florida new housing market – including Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties – shows that quarterly starts increased 9% from 1Q18 to 2,012, showing a rebound from the effects of Hurricane Irma. The annual starts pace decreased 3% to 7,756 from the annual starts rate observed in 2Q17. Quarterly closings increased 1% from the previous quarter to 1,825, but decreased 11% from 2Q17. The annual closings pace of 7,645 decreased 3% from the previous quarter, and decreased 3% from 2Q17.
Finished, vacant inventory totaled 1,385 units, up 2% from last quarter but 1.5% lower than 2Q17. Finished, vacant, inventory has hovered in the 2 months-of-supply (MOS) range for the previous twenty-one consecutive quarters and is holding steady at 2.2 MOS.
Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory totaled 17,722, a 2% increase from the previous quarter and a 1% decrease from 2Q17. VDL represents 27 months’ supply. Lot deliveries increased 36% this quarter to 2,364, but are down 9% YoY. Total lots delivered in the past twelve months are 7,605, less than the annual starts pace of 7,756. Future lot supply decreased 1% in 2Q18 to 139,203.
County by County Stats:
- Miami-Dade County: Quarterly starts decreased 7% from the previous quarter to 497, and decreased 34% from 2Q17. Quarterly closings decreased 21% from the previous quarter to 487, and decreased 29% year over year. The annual starts pace of 2,360 decreased 10% from 2Q17 and the annual closing pace of 2,614 decreased 11% from a year ago.
- Broward County: Quarterly housing starts in Broward County increased 24% from the previous quarter to 382, and are up 9.5% from 2Q17. Quarterly closings increased 33% from the previous quarter to 394, and increased 5% from 2Q17. The annual starts pace decreased 1.5% YoY to 1,464 units, while annual closings were up 1.5% YoY at 1,411.
- Palm Beach County: Quarterly housing starts in Palm Beach County increased 9% from the previous quarter to 594, and increased 1.5% from 2Q17. Quarterly closings are up 3% from the previous quarter to 477, but are down 12% YoY. The annual starts pace increased 5% YoY to 2,050, while annual closings decreased 2% YoY to 1,859.
- Treasure Coast: The Treasure Coast is comprised of Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Quarterly starts increased 13% and quarterly closings increased 8% from the previous quarter.
The chart below shows the Top 10 single family communities in the South Florida market, ranked by the past 12 months’ starts through the second quarter of 2018. Lennar’s Aqua Bella moves ahead of Tradition this quarter to claim the top spot. Tradition drops to second, and Valencia Bay moves up to third. MiraLago and Dakota round out the top five. The Fields, Century Park, and Westlake arrive in the Top 10, and along with Artesa and Parkview, complete the list.
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