SOUTH FLORIDA HOUSING 3Q17: Market Continues Strong Despite Irma’s Impact; September Marks 86th Consecutive Month of Job Growth

  • Through 3Q17, Annual New Home Starts are up 4% YoY; Quarterly Starts are up 13% YoY
  • In Miami Dade County, quarterly starts are up 11% YoY, while in Broward County, starts are up 48% YoY
  • September 2017 marks Florida’s 86th consecutive month of positive year-over-year job growth, while the recent decrease in employment growth is likely due to the effects of Hurricane Irma, which prevented many workers from earning a paycheck during the employment survey period in mid-September

Metrostudy’s 3Q17 survey of the South Florida housing market – including Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties – shows that new home starts  increased 8% from the previous quarter to 2,327, and increased 13% from 3Q16. The annual starts pace increased 4% to 8,288 from the annual starts rate observed in 3Q16. Quarterly closings increased 1% from the previous quarter and increased 4% from 3Q16. The annual closings pace of 7,940 increased 1% from the previous quarter and increased 8% from 3Q16.

Finished, vacant inventory increased 2% from last quarter to 1,434 units, and this figure is 20% higher than the third quarter of 2016. Finished, vacant, inventory has hovered in the 2 months-of-supply (MOS) range for the previous nineteen consecutive quarters and stands at 2.2 MOS.

Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory decreased 3% from the previous quarter to 17,585, a 25.5 months’ supply. VDLs decreased 6% from the third quarter of 2016. Lot deliveries decreased 34% this quarter to 1,771, and are down 35% year over year (y- o-y). Future lot supply increased 2% this quarter, to 153,225.

County-by-County Stats:

  • Miami-Dade County: Quarterly starts increased 10% from the previous quarter to 815, and increased 11% from 3Q16. Quarterly closings increased 17% from the previous quarter, but decreased 1% year over year. The annual starts pace of 2,939 increased 2% from 3Q16 and the annual closing pace increased 9% from a year ago.
  • Broward County: Quarterly housing starts in Broward County increased 40% from the previous quarter, and are up 48% from 3Q16. Quarterly closings increased by 10% from the previous quarter, and are up 17% from 3Q16. The annual starts pace increased 22% y-o-y to 1,651 and annual closings were up 20% y-o-y.
  • Palm Beach County: Quarterly housing starts in Palm Beach County decreased 14% from the previous quarter, and are down 2% from 3Q16. Quarterly closings are down 21% from the previous quarter, and are down 8% y-o-y. The annual starts pace decreased 3% and annual closings decreased 8% y-o-y.
  • Treasure Coast: The Treasure Coast includes Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Quarterly starts increased 9% while quarterly closings decreased 5% from the previous quarter.

September 2017 marks Florida’s 86th consecutive month of positive year-over-year job growth. Florida’s seasonally adjusted annual job growth rate as of September 2017 was 62,400, a 0.7% increase. Non-agricultural, non-seasonally adjusted jobs in South Florida grew by 21,200 over the past twelve months. The annual job growth rate for the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) of Miami (including Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach), Port St. Lucie-Martin, and Sebastian-Vero Beach was 0.8, 0.4, and 2.2 percent respectively. The decrease in employment growth is likely due to the effects of Hurricane Irma, which prevented many workers from earning a paycheck during the employment survey period in mid-September.

The chart below shows the top 10 single family communities in the South Florida market, ranked by the past 12 months’ starts through the third quarter of 2017:

Screen Shot 2017-11-02 at 1.39.47 PM

The northwest Miami -Dade community of Bonterra remains the top community this quarter, although it has reached built-out status. Lennar and GL Homes dominate the top 10 with nine of the ten projects. Aqua Bella makes its first appearance on the top 10 list this quarter.

For information contact

David Cobb
561.228.8001 x505
dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy: Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and residential construction industry. Metrostudy’s actionable business intelligence informs investment decisions that mitigate risk and grow revenue for builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers and manufacturers. It’s the construction industry’s only integrated data intelligence solution supported by the most extensive U.S. geographic coverage. Learn more at Metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood: Hanley Wood is the premier company serving the information, media, and marketing needs of the residential, commercial design and construction industry. Utilizing the largest analytics and editorially driven Construction Industry Database, the company provides business intelligence and data-driven services. The company produces award-winning media, high-profile executive events, and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.